Anna Sheffer
October 17, 2018 8:58 am

With the 2018 midterm elections quickly approaching, pundits and politicians alike are eager to know how the results will affect Congress. And President Donald Trump said that even if his party loses the House of Representatives on November 6th, it won’t be his fault.

In an October 16th interview with the Associated Press, Trump said he believes voter turnout will remain high among his supporters this year—although he did admit that some of his base has told him they won’t vote if he’s not running. The president then insisted that he was “helping” the GOP, and dismissed the notion that he would be at fault if Democrats take back the House of Representatives.

President Barack Obama, as the AP noted, accepted partial blame for his party’s defeat in the 2010 midterm elections.

Trump also said that he would “handle it very well” if the House does flip, allowing Democrats to pursue impeachment.

Trump is right about one thing: He has had a huge impact on political engagement since getting elected…but not in the way he claims.  A September 26th report from the Pew Research Center found that 64% of potential voters are worried that if Republicans maintain control of Congress, they won’t provide enough oversight of the Trump administration. Meanwhile, 37% of respondents said that their midterm vote will be “against” Trump. Only 23% said that their vote would be in support of the president, and only 37% of voters said the president will have no impact on their vote (which, as the Brookings Institution notes, is the lowest percentage ever recorded). Additionally, 72% of voters—more than in any other past election—said that the party in power was a deciding factor in their midterm vote.

So far, the Democrats appear to have an edge in the race. As of October 17th, FiveThirtyEight gives Democrats an 83.6% chance of taking back the House, compared to a 16.4% chance that Republicans maintain control. And given the fact that so many people say that Trump will affect their vote, it seems safe to say that the president is at least partly responsible for that outcome.

The 2018 midterm elections have the potential to change the course of Trump’s presidency. If you believe that this is important, be sure to vote on November 6th, 2018.

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