Kit Steinkellner
September 07, 2015 11:05 am

Do you ever wonder who the next Chrissy Teigen or Cara Delevingne is going to be? Wonder no more. Science (and Instagram) have all the answers.

As CBS News reports, a team of scientists from the University of Indiana have created a formula to predict which models will rise through the ranks. The team collected physical/professional information about 400 models, which agencies the models are repped by, and Instagram data (number of posts, likes on posts, and positive vs. negative comments on posts) collected from Fall 2014 to predict which models would walk the most Fashion Week runways during Fall/Winter 2015.

These researchers are now saying that they can accurately predict which new models will become runway favorites. And, apparently a model’s Instagram info is the secret glue that makes the whole formula work.

“When we added the social information, we realized that we will be able to predict with above 80 percent accuracy whether a new face, a new model that just started … would become popular, would run some top runway in the immediate future,” Emilio Ferrara, a computer scientist and member of the research team, told CBS News.

So how accurate was their formula? Of the eight models the team predicted would become popular this season, six of the models actually DID become super-runway popular (and those ladies would be Sofia Tesmenitskaya, Arina Levchenko, Renata Scheffer, Sasha Antonowskaia, Melanie Culley and Phillipa Hemphrey). And of the seven models who were predicted to be the least popular this season, six of those models filled those bottom slots.

So what can a model do to be more popular? Well, there are things that are completely out of a model’s control (being an inch taller than average doubles a model’s chances of walking the runway), things that are kind of out of a model’s control (being repped by a prestigious agency gives a model a ten time greater chance of walking the runway than a model repped by a less-prestigious agency), but the one thing that ups a model’s chance of working that’s completely within her control? Being on social media.

“Being more active played in your favor,” Ferrara told CBS News. “If you’re a model and you’re on Instagram, you are already more likely to become famous than one of your colleagues who was not on Instagram. So already being there plays in your advantage.”

Also interesting: Models who post more than average have a 15% higher chance of success with the runway, a high number of likes and comments ups a models chances (but weirdly, if a model has a higher than average number of likes, it lowers her chances by 10%), and it doesn’t matter whether comments are positive or negative, the tone of comments does not affect a model’s popularity.

We’ll be VERY curious to see if any of the models who ranked high this year break out to achieve Karlie Kloss/Gigi Hadid top-model status.


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(Image via Instagram.)